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SOCIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL TURBULENCE: CHALLENGES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
(Чайки: ФІНТЕХАЛЬЯНС, 2026) Baula, Olena; Khomanets, Volodymyr; Urban, Oksana; Tovt, Yuri; Hrachevska, Tamila; Bohorodytska, Anna
During 2020–2024, developing countries faced global financial turbulence caused by a cascade of exogenous shocks (COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical crises, inflationary pressure), leading to a significant deterioration in social indicators and revealing an asymmetry of vulnerability compared to advanced economies. The purpose of the study is to assess the social effects of these crises, identify mechanisms that amplify or miti-gate them in developing countries, and develop social protection tools to minimize long-term consequences for human capital, poverty, and inequality. The article systematizes the main social consequences of global crises for developing countries. Analysis of differences in social responses and the influence of crisis type demonstrated higher vulnerability of developing economies due to limited fiscal space and weak protective institutions: pandemic shocks cause rapid increases in poverty and unemployment, debt/currency crises lead to prolonged deepening of inequality, while polycrises (with a geopolitical component) result in the most persistent losses accompanied by erosion of human capital. A comparative analysis was conducted of the impact of 2020–2024 shocks on poverty, unemployment, and Gini index indicators in advanced and developing countries, evaluating dynamics, growth rates, pre-and post-crisis averages, and a composite social vulnerability index. This confirmed the moderating role of social expenditures. A combination of methods was applied: content analysis and statistical data processing; descriptive, comparative, and index analysis; system-structural modeling; systemic and interdisciplinary approaches. A mechanism is proposed for strengthening global support instruments through the integration of financial resources and institutional-operational components to reduce long-term losses. Directions for anti-crisis social policy in developing countries (particularly Ukraine) are outlined: strengthening adaptive social protection, investment in hu-man capital, risk-oriented strategies, and sustainable financing aimed at rapid recovery, containment of poverty/inequality, and increased resilience to shocks.
MODELLING OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROGRESS
(Чайки : ФІНТЕХАЛЬЯНС, 2025-06-30) Svynarenko, Dmytro; Лютак, Олена Миколаївна; Баула, Олена Вікторівна; Ivantsov, Serhii; Zhydyk, Andriy
The sustainable development of a national economy is a central concept in modern public governance, aiming to ensure a balanced interplay between economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability. This study seeks to develop theoretical and methodological approaches, alongside practical tools, for modelling and forecasting sustainable economic development. Particular attention is given to the role of human capital as a critical driver that enhances labour productivity, innovation capacity, and resource efficiency. The article highlights key challenges in implementing sustainable development models: the lack of integrated modelling frameworks, insufficient and low-quality data, the pace of global change, the absence of clear methodologies, and limited innovation activity. An econometric model is constructed to evaluate the impact of sus-tainability components on GDP as a core macroeconomic indicator. The model incorpo-rates economic, social, and environmental variables, emphasizing human capital as a mediating factor. Two-variable trend analyses are used to explore relationships between real GDP and selected indicators. The study identifies the most influential factors as the Consumer Price Index (%), State Budget Deficit (UAH million), Minimum Wage (UAH), Share of Renewable Energy in Total Supply (%), and Energy Consumption from Wind and Solar Sources (thousand tons of oil equivalent). Correlation and determination co-efficients are calculated to quantify these relationships. GDP forecasting is conducted using logarithmic, exponential, and power regression models. Based on the findings, the paper outlines strategic directions for promoting sustainable development in Ukraine, focusing on economic, environmental, and social dimensions through the ad-vancement of human capital. The research methodology combines a systemic and in-terdisciplinary approach, employing tools such as comprehensive factor analysis, stra-tegic planning, and econometric modelling using the Data Analysis and Regression toolkit.

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