SOCIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL TURBULENCE: CHALLENGES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Abstract

During 2020–2024, developing countries faced global financial turbulence caused by a cascade of exogenous shocks (COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical crises, inflationary pressure), leading to a significant deterioration in social indicators and revealing an asymmetry of vulnerability compared to advanced economies. The purpose of the study is to assess the social effects of these crises, identify mechanisms that amplify or miti-gate them in developing countries, and develop social protection tools to minimize long-term consequences for human capital, poverty, and inequality. The article systematizes the main social consequences of global crises for developing countries. Analysis of differences in social responses and the influence of crisis type demonstrated higher vulnerability of developing economies due to limited fiscal space and weak protective institutions: pandemic shocks cause rapid increases in poverty and unemployment, debt/currency crises lead to prolonged deepening of inequality, while polycrises (with a geopolitical component) result in the most persistent losses accompanied by erosion of human capital. A comparative analysis was conducted of the impact of 2020–2024 shocks on poverty, unemployment, and Gini index indicators in advanced and developing countries, evaluating dynamics, growth rates, pre-and post-crisis averages, and a composite social vulnerability index. This confirmed the moderating role of social expenditures. A combination of methods was applied: content analysis and statistical data processing; descriptive, comparative, and index analysis; system-structural modeling; systemic and interdisciplinary approaches. A mechanism is proposed for strengthening global support instruments through the integration of financial resources and institutional-operational components to reduce long-term losses. Directions for anti-crisis social policy in developing countries (particularly Ukraine) are outlined: strengthening adaptive social protection, investment in hu-man capital, risk-oriented strategies, and sustainable financing aimed at rapid recovery, containment of poverty/inequality, and increased resilience to shocks.